The Blind Machine

Independently reproduce the experiments in The Blind Machine paper and confirm its published numbers, using only the open Blind CLI and public data — no hosted service, no credentials, no private records.

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Install the whole repository into your agent's skills directory in one command — it unpacks as a ready-to-use replicate/ folder (change -C to your skills path):

curl -fsSL https://blindmachine.org/skills/replicate/archive | tar xz -C ~/.claude/skills

Or fetch just the recipe to read or execute inline:

curl https://blindmachine.org/skills/replicate.md
replicate / references / expected-results.md

79 lines · 3.52 KB · sha256:db4eaff92e02…dd0ce482

Expected results

Every value below is what a correct replication reproduces. The synthetic
ciphertext sizes are byte-deterministic (a mismatch is a real regression); the
real-genome headline numbers are deterministic given the committed sample and
variant selection rules.

Contents

  • Synthetic BFV exactness taxonomy (Section 10)
  • E5 — allele-frequency panel
  • E6 — cross-population differentiation
  • E7 — release-policy differencing
  • E8 — linkage-disequilibrium window

Synthetic BFV exactness taxonomy (paper Section 10)

At N=20, L=10, 128-bit security, seed 42. max_error must be 0 for every row.

Application Tier Ciphertext bytes / contribution Premium
allele_frequency_count additive 262,282
carrier_count additive 262,282
cohort_histogram additive 262,282
polygenic_score_aggregate additive 262,282
allele_frequency_with_variance mult-supporting 1,310,882
genotype_phenotype_covariance mult-supporting 2,621,791 10×

The four additive applications share an identical ciphertext size; the payload
premium of one multiplicative level is 5× (variance) and 10× (covariance).

E5 — allele-frequency panel

  • Source: IGSR/1000 Genomes Phase 3 20130502, region 22:16050000-17000000.
  • 10 public samples, 12 complete-call biallelic SNPs.
  • Encrypted first moment (allele_frequency_count) and first+second moments
    (allele_frequency_with_variance) match the cleartext oracle exactly.
  • Mean absolute AF deviation vs IGSR global: 0.0609.
  • Mean heterozygote rate: 0.3083. Mean dosage variance: 0.2542.

E6 — cross-population differentiation

  • Region 22:16050000-17000000; 50 samples (10 per super-population), 24 SNPs.
  • Exact moments vs oracle.
  • Maximum F_ST-like value 0.1363 at 22:16067208:C:G (EAS 0.90 vs AMR 0.45).
  • Panel mean F_ST-like 0.0611; mean absolute AF deviation vs IGSR global
    0.0311; 624 small-cell group rows suppressed (n < 10).
  • The F_ST-like statistic is a simplified equal-weight heterozygosity contrast over
    a small selected panel — not a population-genetics estimate.

E7 — release-policy differencing

  • Region 22:16050000-17250000; N=25 vs adjacent N=24, 40 SNPs; the held-out
    sample carries a nonzero alt dosage at 6 of the 40 positions.
  • Both encrypted aggregates match the cleartext counts; the exact-count difference
    recovers the held-out sample’s dosage vector exactly.
  • Recovery rate by policy:
Policy Exact vector recovery
No policy / minimum-N = 20 only 1.000
Minimum-N = 25 blocks adjacent base 0.000
Cohort freeze (single release) 0.000
Query budget = 5 0.125
Counts rounded to nearest 5 0.850 exact-position, 0.000 exact-vector
  • Query-budget curve is linear: recovery = (positions the budget allows) / 40
    (budget 1 → 0.025, 5 → 0.125, 10 → 0.250, 20 → 0.500, 40 → 1.000).

E8 — linkage-disequilibrium window (draft genotype_pair_ld)

  • Region 22:16050000-16900000; 25 samples, 11 adjacent variant pairs.
  • All five product-moment vectors (sum_a, sum_b, sum_a2, sum_b2, sum_ab) match
    the cleartext oracle exactly.
  • Maximum r2 = 1.0000 (pair 4) — a small-count artifact: both variants carry
    only 3 alternate alleles across 25 samples and perfectly co-occur. This is
    expected spurious LD, not a population signal.
  • E8 ran below the application’s declared floor of 30 contributors, so it is a
    compute-path correctness check, not a governed release.

Part of the Replicate The Blind Machine experiments agent skill.

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